Election coming?

Speculation grows that the federal Conservative government will be toppled if not before the budget, by the budget.

There are many writing about this. Here is an editorial that puts it on Jack Layton and the NDP. They (or the Bloc) tend to hold the power when it comes to confidence votes.

I have put together a list of reasons for and against an election. I invite you to make your own conclusions and decide if an election is necessary.

Reasons AGAINST an election:

- Cost $$ - The last federal election (2008) cost Canadians around $300 million dollars, not much change from the previous 2.

- Lack of Issues - Many would have trouble identifying any stressing issues that would be the centre of an election campaign that Canadians care about. The economy seems to be the only main focus, however it's strong standing at this point seems to take much debate away.

- Lack of Leaders - Despite a personal annoyance at the focus on "who should we elect PM" this is what the vast (and I mean vast) majority of Canadians care about. Based on the last 2 elections it seems Canadians aren't willing to give Harper and the Conservatives a majority, but aren't willing to forgive and trust an Ignatieff led Liberal party. Not enough of the population believes in Jack Layton and the Greens aren't anywhere near enough seats for Elizabeth May to become PM. The bloc is not a national party, and as such will never be a threat for government.

- Lack of caring - Low voter turnout seems to be the story for every election and with a lack of issues to care about I doubt this one would be different.

Reasons FOR an election:

- Complacency - Parliament seems to lack any progress on completing anything on the agenda.

- Scandals and more Scandals - It seems every week there is a scandal of some kind whether for or against the government. The best way to eliminate "dead wood" is to vote them out.

- To get rid of leaders - Stay with me on this one. Many out there (and I am one of them) believe that there is a lack of choice for party leadership. Right now there is no reason to believe the Conservatives will win a majority, and having failed 3 times to deliver anything but a minority I doubt Stephen Harper will survive another minority government.

Many Canadians distrust Ignatieff (justly or not) and the Liberal Party will probably never govern while he is leader, so an election loss of the same or less seats will probably see him ousted as party leader. Some scenarios could also see the Liberal Party rebrand, retool or possibly even be close to collapse.

Jack Layton will probably never govern this country. However, he is so popular within the NDP I doubt anything but a massive loss will cost him his job. That said he may retire as he is going through a few health concerns.

The Bloc may be "separatist" in constitution, but anyone who spends time examining Canadian politics and society can tell that separation is further away now than it ever has been. Duceppe will run again, and the party will have a good showing but I question if he will be around much after that.


It is going to be an interesting few weeks.

I'm horrible at this!

I have probably started a blog about 4 times and have never continued it. I guess I am just a statistic that most blogs end after 1 month. This one didn't end, it just became lonely. But things seem to be picking up politically so I will try and blog when things peak my interest (confuse, amuse or piss me off).